2026 and the Story of Bear Markets and Black Holes.

The time between Christmas and New Year's is a strange limbo. For office workers, time has little meaning, as the office is open, but nothing is happening. Most of the business world feels like it is on vacation, and there is a sleepy quality to anything that happens. I blame the holiday leftovers and the surplus of sweets. It is a sugar high that gradually comes down. It is a period worth savoring, giving people a chance to look back on the old year and look ahead to the new one. I take this time to make a few predictions about where I see some trends heading into the new year. Let us pop a cork and get started.  

The K-Shaped Economy –

The current tariff situation, job numbers, and consumer price index tell a perilous story about the economy. Instead, the Gross Domestic Product and the stock market seem to be growing. The reason why is what pundits are calling the "K" shaped economy. If you are in the top quarter of the income distribution, you are doing well and spending. If you are part of the other 75%, you are struggling to pay bills and remain employed. The well-off are doing better, and everyone else is in trouble.

I suspect the situation will grow more pronounced in 2026, leading to resentment. Unfortunately, this resentment will now have an easy target, because the people who rode this tide are in charge, and they have their own policies to blame for the continuing divergence in fortunes. A backlash was bound to happen.

The Beginning of Backlash Election 2026 –

I think the political future is going to be a mess in 2026. The Democratic Party believes it can win back the House of Representatives and possibly the U.S. Senate. As the House flips parties and the Senate gridlocks, J.D. Vance will undoubtedly exploit his tie-breaking authority to command the spotlight, prioritizing personal grandstanding over legislative substance.

The politics of the moment is about Donald Trump and his dying star. The press conferences will become more rambling. The administration will favor reactionary whims over sound policy, shamelessly casting aside any semblance of accountability. If the Democrats gain political power, they will become a foil for the President's attempts to deflect blame. Stars can die in three main ways. First, they can slowly burn out and cool. Next, a star can go supernova in a binge of destruction and creation. Finally, it can collapse into a black hole where nothing can escape. For the Republicans' sake, I hope they are not trapped in a black hole.

The Crypto Reality Check –

Since Bitcoin's rise, I have regarded cryptocurrency with a jaundiced eye. Based on what I learned during my MBA, cryptocurrency resembles a blue-sky stock. Before the Great Depression, the market peddled 'blue-sky' stocks that offered nothing but empty promises, as they had no tangible assets or money backing them. Everything was fine as long as the price kept going up, but as soon as the value fell, the investment vehicle bankrupted thousands of people. The New Deal financial regulations outlawed blue-sky stocks.

Cryptocurrency is the new blue sky stock of the Twenty-First Century. It is largely unregulated, prone to fraud, and once you pay cash for the crypto, it is nearly impossible to convert it back into cash. People are also beginning to discover that it is a risky and unstable investment. As of December 26, bitcoin is trading at roughly $87,200 per coin, down from its October high of $120,000. If you purchased a home and it lost a third of its value in three months, you would be frightened and angry. I see this contagion spreading to other coins, and more people are going to get hurt. It is the one prediction I hope I get wrong in 2026.

The Job Market –

The job market feels broken, and as someone on the outside looking in, I have guarded optimism that things will improve. Companies delayed many project decisions in 2025 and postponed decision-making until 2026. Organizations keep building data centers and force themselves to take advantage of Artificial Intelligence. To make these efforts successful, they will need experienced professionals to make them happen. The market has plenty of skilled people, and we will be the ones helping lead corporate America through the desert of Artificial Intelligence. We need a chance.

Quick Hits –

The Chicago Bears' rebound is ahead of schedule, and I am over the moon. They will be a better team in 2026, and I expect them in the NFC championship game next season. The Chicago White Sox will improve and only lose 90 games in 2026.

I look forward to the Dune 3 movie and to seeing Anna Taylor-Joy play Alia, one of the most tragic figures in the Dune universe.

I expect the Olympic hockey between the Canadian and American teams to be entertaining and filled with sharp elbows. The U.S.A. women will seek revenge after earning silver last time.

Finally, I look forward to more blogs and adventures in the coming year, and I hope you join me for a happy and healthy 2026.

Until next time.