Looking Ahead to 2025.

Predicting the future is a fool's errand. If anyone could do it accurately, the world would have fewer casinos, and the planet would overflow with stock millionaires. It does not prevent people from trying to make accurate predictions, but often, random chance determines whether an educated guess is correct. While my predictions have had mixed results, I still enjoy envisioning and hoping for a brighter future. The previous year was ironic and unsettling. We will see some of those trends in the new year, and I hope we will see business and culture move in a positive direction. Without any further ado, here is my attempt to examine the entrails of 2024 and dive into some trends for 2025.

Returning to an abusive presidency –

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar said the following in Bloomberg Businessweek.

"This election has revealed a populace that was severely abused, broke free, and has now run back to its abuser for more mistreatment."

If you do not fit into the narrow worldview of Trumpworld, expect plenty of mistreatment. Lawmakers plan to significantly reduce regulations and push for permanent tax cuts enacted in 2017. There will be further efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and the 47^th President will use any means possible to expand his authority. Executive orders and singing statements will proliferate, and Congress will allow it to happen as long as the GOP maintains its slight advantage in the House of Representatives and Senate. For anyone concerned about good governance, it will be infuriating. I also think that cracks will appear in the GOP as representatives realize that thanks to the Constitution's 22nd Amendment, the 47^th president cannot run for a third term.

Those cracks will become bottomless chasms as proposed tariffs and deportations of undocumented immigrants create inflationary pressure on the economy. Expect plenty of awful headlines, overt cruelty, and dysfunction from the federal government in the next few years. This mistreatment will galvanize voters to seek a new political direction, and while we don't know the exact path yet, we can be confident that a better future awaits.

The Rise of the Nerd Reich –

The technology business in Silicon Valley contains a central counter-cultural element. It has had this utopian vision about how technology would improve the world for years. Since the giddy and stupid days of the dot-com bubble, the vision has aged like buttermilk left out all week at Burning Man. Today, We have a much more skeptical vision of how people consume technology. The Fourth Industrial Revolution generated unprecedented wealth and power, creating a new class of individuals who, despite their material success, sought the influence and control associated with governing nations. Author Gil Duran provides a helpful history of this authoritarian movement in Silicon Valley with his Nerd Reich newsletter.

I encourage you to subscribe to learn more about this trend.

Many of the people who made billions of dollars from the growth of the internet are rejecting many of the Enlightenment principles that generated their wealth. They desire to move us toward something resembling a feudal society or city-state where everyone knows their place. Those tech billionaires want to operate with little interference from government, public opinion, or financial accountability. Expect lots of contradictory reports out of Silicon Valley in the next year.

The AI Bubble Deflating –

My involvement in the expansion of Artificial Intelligence is minor. I was one of the metaphorical anonymous chorus members who make up a Broadway show's cast. I sang my part, hit my cues, and got off the stage to allow the main cast to tell the story. This backstage pass provided me with plenty of insider information about artificial intelligence.

What I learned is that Artificial Intelligence is complicated and expensive. It requires gigawatts of energy to power data centers that run large language models that Artificial Intelligence demands. Training large language models requires significant time and effort, and developing programs to utilize their generated data effectively presents a substantial challenge. Finally, the data centers that AI relies upon need more information to make their models more comprehensive. It requires millions of dollars an hour to keep this machinery working.

Someone must pay for all this innovation; the big players hope it is the enterprise software clients who typically purchase their products. Unfortunately, the cost and unclear return on investment create plenty of reluctance among Chief Information Officers across numerous business categories. This means that the enormous profits big tech companies expect from AI are not materializing. Artificial intelligence is profitable but not the boffo business everyone expects.

Eventually, the savvy investor will take their profits and move on to the next opportunity. Once again, retail investors will lose lots of money, and the players who have created a sustainable business model will be able to make lots of money when the market resets. It will not be the sound of a bubble bursting but a slow deflation as expectations and reality align.

Gun Violence Will Continue to Decrease –

The period after COVID-19 featured a brief spasm of violence and an increase in the murder rate; it also saw regulations about guns slacken thanks to a Supreme Court decision that allowed all Americans to open-carry. It also does not help that local and national news broadcasts feature many stories about crime and violence. Americans are more likely to be armed and more fearful of violence.

Despite this situation, violent crime deaths and gun violence are declining. People are returning to work and school, and anti-violence measures in big cities are making our lives safer. We should be grateful that small efforts are helping to improve the health and safety of others.

I believe that fewer guns on the streets can reduce the number of gun deaths. Since we do not have the political or cultural will to do that, it is nice to see people finding ways to reduce violence in our communities, and I hope this trend continues.

Networks of Competence Ascendant –

Forbes Magazine featured an article entitled "Networks of Competence Crush Hierarchies of Authority." It felt like a significant vindication because I have said this for over ten years.

Business leaders are beginning to discover that success depends on creating a clear mission for their organizations and letting their people figure out how to achieve that goal. The trend runs counter to the more authoritative aspects of business leadership. It also supports many of the pieces of the agile reformation I have attempted to train others during my career.

It is satisfying to know that I am following this career path and helping others understand my vision.

A Federated Future –

When Elon Musk took over Twitter, I looked for a different social media platform. I am happy to say that I have a home on Mastodon. Federated Services is going to be the future of social media. The big players will still exist, but social media will become like email, and people will have more control over what they see and read. It is a good thing, and the community I discovered on Mastodon is a positive and nurturing online experience. I have not said that in a long time.

Wrapping Up –

2025 will be a mixed bag, but I hope we will navigate the good and the bad with hope and dignity.

Have a very happy New Year and until next time.